The Biggest Misses in Competitor Threat Assessment in Biotech & Pharma—And What to Do About Them

Hyon Kim, PH.D.
Associate Director – Healthcare and Life Sciences
Proactive Worldwide, Inc.

Published: March 18, 2025

Competitor Threat Assessment Biotech Pharma Meeting

Competitive intelligence in biotech and pharma isn’t just about tracking pipeline developments—it’s a high-stakes game where missing a key move can cost billions. Yet, time and again, companies fail to anticipate threats because they focus only on obvious competitors, outdated playbooks, or conventional industry players.

It’s like preparing for a well-known rival in a championship game—only to be blindsided by an underdog who rewrites the rules of the sport.

Here’s where companies drop the ball in competitor threat assessment—and how to stay ahead of the game.

1. Ignoring the ‘Rookie Phenomenon’ – Underestimating Emerging Biotech Players

In sports, rookies are often overlooked by veteran teams. They’re considered unproven, inexperienced, and unlikely to disrupt the status quo. Then, suddenly, a game-changing talent emerges—rewriting the record books while seasoned players struggle to keep up.

This is exactly what’s happening in biotech. Large pharma companies focus on traditional rivals, while nimble biotech startups race ahead with disruptive innovations and fewer barriers to execution.

Case in Point: Moderna’s Rise

Before COVID-19, Moderna was just another biotech startup, experimenting with mRNA technology. Established vaccine makers—Pfizer, GSK, Sanofi—largely dismissed them as too early-stage, too speculative. Then, the pandemic hit.

Moderna leveraged its agility and cutting-edge R&D to fast-track one of the first COVID-19 vaccines, forcing big pharma to scramble. By the time they caught up, Moderna had already cemented itself as an industry leader.

Lesson Learned: Never assume today’s underdog won’t be tomorrow’s champion. The biotech industry is full of rising rookies—those who fail to scout them properly risk being outpaced and outplayed.

2. Missing the Trade Deadline – Misjudging M&A and Licensing Activity

In professional sports, championship teams don’t just rely on homegrown talent—they acquire missing pieces through trades and free agency to stay ahead.

Yet, many pharma companies fail to track M&A moves strategically, assuming that pipeline analysis alone will tell the full story. Competitors aren’t just building their next blockbuster—they might buy it overnight through a strategic acquisition.

Case in Point: Roche’s Acquisition of Genentech

In 2009, Roche made a bold move, fully acquiring Genentech for $47 billion. While competitors assumed the partnership model would continue, Roche instead locked down full control over blockbuster biologics like Herceptin and Avastin, securing its dominance in oncology.

Lesson Learned: Competitor intelligence isn’t just about watching their pipeline—it’s about anticipating their next big move and ensuring you don’t get left behind while they stack their roster.

3. Ignoring the Disruptors – Overlooking Non-Traditional Competitors

In Formula 1 racing, teams don’t just compete against each other—they also battle advances in technology. When new engineering breakthroughs emerge, those who resist innovation fall behind.

The same is happening in pharma and biotech. The industry is so focused on traditional drug manufacturers that it often ignores the tech companies, AI-driven startups, and data-powered disruptors racing into their lane.

Case in Point: Google’s DeepMind & AlphaFold

For decades, pharma companies struggled with protein folding, a key challenge in drug discovery. Then came DeepMind’s AlphaFold, an AI breakthrough that solved the protein-folding problem practically overnight.

The result? An entire industry was outpaced by a tech company that didn’t even develop drugs—but fundamentally changed the way drugs could be discovered.

Lesson Learned: The real threats don’t always come from within the industry. Ignoring non-traditional competitors—whether they’re AI startups, digital health disruptors, or tech giants—is like showing up to a Formula 1 race with last year’s engine. You’ll get left in the dust.

4. Failing to Adjust to New Rules – Missing Regulatory and Policy Shifts

Any team that ignores rule changes in their sport risks being penalized or outmaneuvered. The same applies to pharma companies that assume regulations are static—when, in reality, policy shifts can upend market dynamics overnight.

Case in Point: The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)

When the IRA introduced drug pricing reforms, allowing Medicare to negotiate prices, many pharma giants underestimated its impact. The result? Revenue losses on blockbuster drugs that could have been mitigated with better forecasting and scenario planning.

Lesson Learned: Competitor intelligence isn’t just about what your rivals are doing—it’s about understanding how the entire playing field is changing and adjusting before it’s too late.

How PWW Helps You Stay Ahead of the Game

Just like top sports teams invest in analytics, scouting, and game strategy, companies need a strategic competitive intelligence (CI) partner to stay ahead of emerging threats.

At Proactive Worldwide (PWW), we provide:

Early Warning Systems – AI-driven monitoring of competitor pipelines, M&A deals, and regulatory shifts before they impact your strategy.
Scenario Planning & Competitive Simulations – Strategic foresight exercises to war-game competitor moves and industry shifts before they happen.
Deep Competitive Benchmarking – In-depth intelligence on R&D strategies, digital disruption, and new industry entrants.
Pharma-Specific CI Solutions – Global market access tracking, biosimilar intelligence, and risk mitigation tailored to the unique challenges of biotech and pharma.

The Final Score: Why Work with PWW?

Winning in biotech and pharma requires more than just pipeline analysis—it demands a proactive, forward-thinking strategy that anticipates not only direct competitors but also industry disruptors, policy changes, and unexpected market forces.