The Day I Realized Information Doesn’t Make Decisions. People Do.

One of the most important lessons of my career came very early on.

I had just finished presenting the results of a competitive intelligence project to a group of senior executives. As I walked out of the room, I felt pretty good. The research was solid, the analysis was thorough, and the presentation had gone exactly as planned. Nobody challenged my conclusions, and I had answers for every question they asked.

I remember putting my briefcase in the trunk of my red Toyota Celica GT.

Yes…an actual briefcase. The kind with little combination locks on it. That should give you a pretty good idea of how long ago this was. BTW, I still have it!

I climbed into the driver’s seat thinking,

“That went really well.”

The funny thing is…I was right.

The presentation went well.

The meeting didn’t.

About fifteen minutes into the drive home, it hit me.

The executives had thanked me for the work, yet they were probably no closer to making a decision than they had been before I walked into the room.

I had spent weeks gathering information, validating sources, analyzing the market, and building what I thought was a compelling presentation. Looking back, I probably spent more time perfecting the slides than perfecting the recommendation.

Somewhere along the way, I had confused delivering intelligence with enabling a decision.

I realized the problem wasn’t the quality of my work. It wasn’t my analytical skills.

I wasn’t lacking courage as much as I was waiting for certainty.

The problem is, certainty almost never arrives.

If you’ve worked in intelligence for any length of time, you know there’s always one more interview to conduct, one more report to read, one more competitor to analyze, and one more data point you wish you had.

Eventually, you have to stop searching for certainty and start exercising judgment.

That realization changed the trajectory of my career.

Early on, I thought my job was to remain completely neutral. I wanted to be objective, balanced, and careful not to overstate anything. Presenting every possible scenario felt responsible. Making a recommendation felt risky.

After all, if you never take a position, it’s pretty hard for someone to prove you were wrong.

Over the next three decades, I came to appreciate something I wish someone had taught me much earlier.

Objectivity and neutrality are not the same thing.

Our responsibility is absolutely to follow the evidence wherever it leads. We shouldn’t manipulate facts or force conclusions. But once we’ve done the work, leaders don’t simply want information.

They want judgment.

They want someone who has done the homework, understands the context, recognizes the tradeoffs, and is willing to say,

“Based on everything we know today, here’s what I believe we should do.”

That doesn’t mean they expect certainty.

None of us has that.

Markets change. Competitors surprise us. Customers behave in unexpected ways. If the last few years have taught us anything, it’s that certainty is an illusion.

Which brings me to one sentence I’ve said for years that I’d probably phrase a little differently today.

You’re not paid to avoid being wrong.

Actually…let me say that a little more positively.

You’re paid to help leadership make the best possible decision based on what you know and understand at the time.

That’s a much better description of our role.

One of the simplest changes I ever made was also one of the most impactful.

I stopped ending presentations by asking,

“So…what do you think?”

Instead, I’d say,

“If this were my business, based on our assessment of what we learned, here’s what I would do.”

It’s amazing how differently that conversation unfolds.

Interestingly, executives never expected me to be right every time. They expected me to think, exercise judgment, and make a recommendation with confidence despite the uncertainty.

I eventually realized I had changed the way I approached every recommendation.

Three habits made the biggest difference.

1. Separate confidence from certainty.

You don’t need to be 100% certain to make a recommendation. You almost never will be. Instead, be transparent about your level of confidence. Saying, “I have a high degree of confidence based on the available evidence,” communicates both conviction and humility.

2. Show your thinking, not just your conclusion.

Don’t simply tell leaders what you recommend. Walk them through the evidence, assumptions, tradeoffs, and risks that shaped your thinking. Executives are far more likely to trust your recommendation when they understand how you arrived there.

3. Remember your responsibility.

Your job isn’t to impress leaders with everything you know. It’s to help them make the best possible decision based on what is known today.

Don’t leave your best thinking out of the conversation.

Was I always right? Absolutely not.

If you’ve spent decades in competitive intelligence and you’ve never been wrong, congratulations. You’re either the luckiest professional in our industry…or you’ve become exceptionally skilled at never making a recommendation.

Today, AI has become an indispensable partner in my work. It helps me analyze information faster, uncover patterns, and challenge my thinking.

But eventually, every leadership team asks a question no technology can answer for them:

“What do you think we should do?”

That’s a different question.

Because the answer isn’t based solely on data. It reflects judgment, experience, organizational context, business priorities, and an understanding of what success looks like. Most importantly, it requires someone willing to accept responsibility for making a recommendation while knowing they don’t possess perfect information.

That takes courage!

I still think about that drive home from time to time.

It changed the way I approached every executive meeting that followed.

Today, I still believe the research matters. The analysis matters. The evidence matters.

But eventually someone has to look across the table and say,

“Here’s what I recommend.”

Because in the end…

Information informs decisions.

Judgment enables decisions.

Recommendations move decisions.

The next time a leadership team turns to you and asks,

“What do you think we should do?”

Don’t waste that moment.

That’s why they invited you into the room.